Climate Dynamics and Prediction

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INDIA-CLIM: Decadal to multi-decadal variability in the Indian Monsoon Rainfall and teleconnection with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)

India-CLIM will analyze comprehensive data sets of climate variables for India and output from Earth System model simulations, in order to investigate the variability of the Indian Monsoon with special focus on the wet season of the summer monsoon.

The main hypothesis in the project is that the AMO is an intrinsic oceanic mode and that the associated SST anomalies in Atlantic Ocean can impact the Indian Summer Monsoon through teleconnection.

In order to test our hypothesis, we will use the re-analysis and observed data as well as IPCC/CMIP5 simulations to explore the decadal to multi-decadal variability of Indian Summer Monsoon and the teleconnection with AMO.

Project Details
Funding Agency: 
Research Council of Norway
Project Deputy Leader at NERSC: 
Lasse H. Pettersson
Coordinating Institute: 
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
Project Status: 
Completed

Can we predict what our climate might be like in the near future?

We can predict the weather about 10 days ahead of time, and climate projections look at how the climate will look like a hundred years from now. In between, we find a new field of science: climate prediction. A new publication describes how good our Norwegian Climate Prediction Model is at predicting the climate for our near future.

Why a 1 square km datapoint is better than a 900 square km one

Changes in climate have wide-reaching implications for life on Earth. By looking at the past climate we can understand ongoing processes better. But global datasets covering the past climate have too low resolutions to be useful for small-scale investigations like crop yield modelling – until now!

 

21 years of algae blooms observed from space

Edson Silva just published his first article as part of his institutional PhD project - congratulations! Together with five other co-authors from NERSC and one from the University of Bergen (UiB), he studied the annual cycle of phytoplankton/algae blooms in the Nordic Seas by utilizing satellite data from 2000-2020.

What is phytoplankton?

PredictingNorwegianExtremeSeaLevel: Predicting the impact of decadal variability on extreme sea level along the Norwegian coast

To develop a sea-level indicator that can be used to predict near-term (decadal) changes in extreme sea-level variability along the Norwegian coast.

Extreme sea-level events represent potentially devastating hazards and are expected to occur more frequently in the future as a consequence of rising mean sea levels (Simpson et al., 2015). Additionally, and irrespective of changes in long-term mean sea level, decadal variability modulates and will persist to modulate extreme sea-level characteristics like return heights and periods, therefore intermittently exacerbating or dampening long term changes.

Project Details
Coordinating Institute: 
NORCE
Project Status: 
Completed

BASIC: Climate response to a Bluer Arctic with increased newly-formed winter Sea ICe (BASIC)

To understand the consequences of more open Arctic sea water in summer and increasing ice-growth in winter for the Arctic and Eurasian climate

The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice has led to a ‘bluer’ Arctic. While at the same time, the extent and the volume of newly-formed sea ice in winter are increasing; the climate science community has largely overlooked this unforeseen change, but it has potentially profound and lasting impacts on the Arctic and the Eurasian climate.

Project Details
Coordinating Institute: 
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen
Project Status: 
Ongoing

BECOME-GYRE: BjerknEs COMpEnsation and the sub-polar GYRE

Elucidate the multi-decadal variability of the sub-polar gyre and its relationship to merridional heat transport variations in the North Atlantic. 

Bjerknes Compensation – the idea that anomalies of heat transport in the atmosphere and ocean must be approximately equal and opposite – has now been well established in the scientific literature [Shaffery and Sutton, 2006; Jungclaus and Koenigk, 2010; Outten and Esau, (submitted)]. However, studies of Bjerknes Compensation in climate models have all identified a multi-decadal variability in the heat transport anomalies, with a period of approximately 60-80 years. The mechanism underlying this multi-decadal variability has not been clearly identified.

Project Details
Coordinating Institute: 
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
Project Status: 
Completed

Eu-R-Cool: EuRasian Cooling in CMIP5 Models

Investigating the representation of Euriasan cooling in the CMIP5 models. 

There has been great interest and debate regarding the unusually low sea ice extent (SIE) over the Arctic in recent weeks, and while the summer minimum wasn’t record breaking, it is the sea-ice’s failure to recover since then that has sparked concern. The average SIE for 1981-2010 for this late in November is around 11.5M km2, but currently it is approximately 9.25M km2, a deficit of around 20%. While such a low SIE is unprecedented for this late in the year, it is the temperature response that is even more striking (Figure 1).

Project Details
Coordinating Institute: 
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
Project Status: 
Completed

MUDYFEET: MUlti-scalar DYnamics of Flood EvEnTs

Developing tools to investigate multi-scalar dynamics of extreme precipitation events over Norway.

Extreme events are often the result of interactions between large-scale atmospheric patterns and local scale features, e.g. orography. Traditional approaches to study extreme events typically focus on the importance of either the large scale (e.g. atmospheric rivers) or local scale dynamics. Multi-scalar dynamics investigates the full range of scales, taking a more holistic approach to studying extreme events.

Project Details
Coordinating Institute: 
NORCE
Project Status: 
Completed

ALERTNESS: Advanced models and weather prediction in the Arctic: Enhanced capacity from observations and polar process representations (

To develop world leading capacity for the delivery of reliable and accurate Arctic weather forecasts and warnings for the benefit of maritime operations, business and society.

High-impact weather conditions, rapid climate change and limited predictability make the Arctic a challenging operating environment leading to substantial business, societal and environmental risks. ALERTNESS
will meet this growing need for reliable and accurate weather predictions by addressing forecast challenges unique to the Arctic: availability and quality of observations, exploitation of satellite observations over snow

Project Details
Project Deputy Leader at NERSC: 
Stephen Outten
Coordinating Institute: 
Norwegian Meteorological Insitute
Project Status: 
Completed
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