François Counillon

Research interests
I apply, test and revisit theoretical methods in data assimilation (DA) and modeling to enhance the skill of dynamical predictions. I have worked in operational oceanography and seasonal-to-decadal predictions. My research has led the development of several major prediction systems:
1) The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) addresses the problem of seasonal-to-decadal prediction; contributes to the WMO Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction and to the CMIP6 Decadal Prediction Project (DCPP). This system is unique as it features advance ensemble DA with an isopycnal coordinate ocean model and carries strongly coupled in the ocean and sea ice component.
2) The TOPAZ system is the main marine core system for the Arctic region in Copernicus (http://www.copernicus.eu) and the Norwegian contribution to the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE). It is the first ocean forecasting system using strongly coupled ocean and sea ice data assimilation system and the advanced Ensemble Kalman Filter operationally.
3) The first prototype of a supermodel for Earth system modelling with connection via the ocean of MPIESM, CESM and NorESM (a paper is in preparation).
4) Several high-resolution forecasting regional systems for the Gulf of Mexico, the South China Sea and the Agulhas Region (first regional forecasting system of South Africa)
Link to my Google Scholar account: https://scholar.google.no/citations?user=ST7FjOYAAAAJ&hl=en
Project leader of the following projects
NERSC Principal Investigator of the following projects
Project deputy leader of the following projects
Publications
Peer Review Publications and Books
2022
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Estimation of Ocean Biogeochemical Parameters in an Earth System Model Using the Dual One Step Ahead Smoother: A Twin Experiment. Frontiers in Marine Science. 2022;9..
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WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update A Prediction for 2021-25. Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). 2022;103(4).
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Super-resolution data assimilation. Ocean Dynamics. 2022;72(8)..
2021
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Relating model bias and prediction skill in the equatorial Atlantic. Climate Dynamics. 2021;56(7-8).
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NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP. Geoscientific Model Development. 2021;14(11).
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Twenty-One Years of Phytoplankton Bloom Phenology in the Barents, Norwegian, and North Seas. Frontiers in Marine Science. 2021;8.
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Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and Their Predictive Potential along the Atlantic Water Pathway. Journal of Climate. 2021;35(7).
2020
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North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply. Nature. 2020;583.
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Ocean Biogeochemical Predictions—Initialization and Limits of Predictability. Frontiers in Marine Science. 2020;
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Impact of assimilating altimeter data on eddy characteristics in the South China Sea. Ocean Modelling. 2020;155..
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The Climate Model: An ARCPATH Tool to Understand and Predict Climate Change. In: Nordic Perspectives on the Responsible Development of the Arctic: Pathways to Action. 2020..
2019
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Observational needs for improving ocean and coupled reanalysis, S2S Prediction, and decadal prediction. Frontiers in Marine Science. 2019;6:391.
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Assimilation of semi-qualitative sea ice thickness data with the EnKF-SQ: a twin experiment. Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. 2019;72(1)..
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Seasonal predictions initialised by assimilating sea surface temperature observations with the EnKF. Climate Dynamics. 2019;19(9-10).
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Ocean Reanalyses: Recent Advances and Unsolved Challenges. Frontiers in Marine Science. 2019;6(418).
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Impact of ocean and sea ice initialisation on seasonal prediction skill in the Arctic. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 2019;11.
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Impact of snow initialization in subseasonal-to-seasonal winter forecasts with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres. 2019;124(17-18)..
2018
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Optimising assimilation of sea ice concentration in an Earth system model with a multicategory sea ice model. Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. 2018;70:1435945..
Other Publications
2014
2012
2011
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Spaceborne investigation of the long-term variability of primary productivity in the Arctic Basin. The international conference ”Climate Changes in Polar and Subpolar Regions". 2011;.
2010
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Ocean assimilation and forecasting [Internet]. World Climate Research Programme workshop on seasonal to multi-decadal predictability of polar climate. 2010;Available from: http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/SPARC/PolarWorkshop/main.html.
2007
2005
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The TOPAZ monitoring and prediction system for the Atlantic. European Operational Oceanography: Present and Future, 4th EuroGOOS Conference, June 2005, Brest, France. 2005;:456-459..