The Nansen Center at COP15; -There is still a long way to go in climate modeling

says research director Stein Sandven, on a Side Event at the COP15 in Copenhagen.

The Bellona Foundation has several side events during the COP15 in Copenhagen during the conference from 7th to 18th of December. On Tuesday 8th of December research director from the Nansen Center, Stein Sandven was invited to give a talk under the title “The Most Recent Climate Research”. The other speakers were Pål Prestrud from CICERO, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo and Robert Correll from Center for Energy and Climate Solutions.

Stein Sandven concentrated his presentation on the Arctic Climate, and especially on the Bergen Climate Model, with temperature and sea ice scenarios. The Arctic Climate system is a complicated system consisting on warming, ice/snow melting, and increase in run-off, deep-water formation on conveyor belt. Sandven urged that there are strong natural variabilities on the Arctic Climate System. One of the questions to the Norwegian scientist was how far back in time these climate models go.

– These climate models go back some hundred years back in time, you don’t capture those large changes. The best would be to run these models thousand of year back. Unfortunately there is only possible to run them back 100 years, because we only have data that go that far back.
Sandven admit that this is a great challenge for the global climate modelling community to address these long-term periods. –There is still a long way to go for scientist on this matter, Stein Sandven says.

Despite an agreement amongst scientist that we are facing an anthropogenic global warming, director at Cicero, Pål Prestrud, emphasize that there are many scientist that are critical to some research that are being done around the world. – We must take seriously research that is being published in scientific magazines, says Prestrud. When it comes to the hacked e-mails originated from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia, all three researchers in the panel agreed that it will not have an outcome to the ongoing negotiations at COP15 at Bella Center.

Bob Correll talked about CO2 emissions, which has increased four times faster this decade than the last decade. According to the COP15 this correspond to 750 ppm and will give an increase in global temperature on 3,5 degrees Celsius. There is still a long way to go on the Copenhagen summit to prevent this temperature rise.

NERSC will be present their research at the Arctic Venue at Nordatlantens Brygge in Copenhagen from Saturday 12th and give four scientific presentations at the Arctic Venue during next week.

http://www.bellona.no/nyheter/nyheter_2009/robert_corell