First expert meeting with the next IPCC-report

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) organized this week (May 16-18) it`s Expert Meeting in Trieste, Italy, at International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTS). The Nansen Center was represented by the Director and professor, Sebastian H. Mernild, which by the IPCC Bureau has been selected to participate as a lead author on the upcoming Climate Report, AR6. 

 IPCC working group in TriesteIPCC working group in Trieste

The main objectives for the workshop were to develop and establish:

 - Recommendations for Authors on the use of IPCC guidelines

- Multi-model guidance.

- Detection and attribution methologies.

- Treatment of uncertainties.

- Scoping the WG1 AR6 Regional Atlas.

- Common language and understanding across working groups.

- Coordination mechanisms across working groups chapter teams.  

- Two page document to be written up, and distributed.

 

Mernild in Trieste, ItalyMernild in Trieste, Italy

- During this first session in Trieste we discussed how to coordinate between the different working groups also related to the new regional Atlas. The workload is significant, so it is the necessary to take some step by step procedures and coordination and to avoid some common pitfalls, says Sebastian H. Mernild. He is thrilled to start the important work with the report.

- First of all, there are many things that need to be decided and choices that must be taken before the writing starts. Choices of regions has to be decided and this includes regions from developing countries, and regions from the developed countries. We have to establish definitions of regions with boundary conditions. This includes how detailed it should be. More detailed simulations equals higher uncertainty, says Mernild.

 

The report, that will be published in 2021 and 2022, is considered as the most important scientific basis for international climate policy. Therefore it is by importance to establish the base layer of coordination and workflow among the researchers working within the different groups. The discussions also brought up thoughts about which global coupled models one should use. Mernild emphasize that these models can be good in one region and weak in another one.

Dinner with working groupDinner with working group

 

- There have been valuable discussion points during this first meeting. We will now be looking into new climate scenarios to analyze fx. climate andhydrological conditions/extremes. We also talked about coordination regarding maps to be produced and how to display information from multiple sources. Another factor put up on the agenda was how we quantify, integrate and communicate the quality and reliability of regional climate information, says the Director from The Nansen Center.

 

- There are many variables in this work and it is our duty to put their meanings in the real world. In the end, this work and this report will be understood and interpreted correctly by decision makers and world leaders, says Sebastian H. Mernild