Climate Dynamics and Prediction

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EVA: Earth system modelling of climate Variations in the Anthropocene

Developement of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM)

The term Anthropocene denotes the on-going time period since the beginning of the industrialisation. Human actions have changed the Earth’s climate and environment during this period. 

How can the changes up to now be quantified and how to prepare for the future? 

Earth system models (ESMs) are key tools to answer this question. They are climate models which next to physics also take into account chemical, biological, and ecosystem processes. 

Project Details
Funding Agency: 
Centre for Climate Dynamics - Research Council of Norway
Project Deputy Leader at NERSC: 
Yongqi Gao
Coordinating Institute: 
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen
Project Status: 
Completed

iNcREASE: NoRthern European and Arctic Sea lEvel

InCREASE seeks to improve projections of future sea level in the North Sea and along the Norwegian coast

Making regional sea level projections is a challenge, since in addition to the numerous local forcing elements, there are components forced from the open ocean onto the shelves and coasts that are largely unknown. Also, the two main components of sea level change, thermal expansion and global land-ice melt, have spatially varying imprints.

Project Details
Funding Agency: 
Centre for Climate Dynamics - Research Council of Norway
Coordinating Institute: 
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
Project Status: 
Completed

PARADIGM: Prediction And RegionAl DowscalInG Models

Establish a framework for generating, evaluating and improving regional predictions of climate on seasonal-to-decadal time scale, by combining regionally focused analyses of predictive potential, and dynamical downscaling of climate predictions

The regional effects of climate change can be heavily modulated by internal variability on time scales of seasons to decades. This climate variability may either mitigate or exacerbate the impacts of global warming and therefore has profound implications for mitigation and adaptation planning. The CMIP experiments provide global climate scenarios in response to external forcing, but they are not initialized in agreement with the observed state of the climate. Over the past decade, initialized climate predictions have been developed and are included in the 5th IPCC assessment report.

Project Details
Funding Agency: 
Centre for Climate Dynamics - Research Council of Norway
Coordinating Institute: 
IMR
Project Status: 
Completed

EPOCASA: Enhancing seasonal-to-decadal Prediction Of Climate for the North Atlantic Sector and Arctic

EPOCASA will develop the first seasonal-to-decadal climate prediction capability in Norway, paving the way for operational climate prediction that will be of direct benefit to Norwegian society and economy.

 During the last decade global surface temperatures rose less rapidly than in the preceding decades. The northern hemisphere saw a spate of harsh winters, exemplified by the last one with extremely cold temperatures and high snowfalls across Europe and eastern North America, and one of the driest March in Western Norway since reliable observations started around 1900. At the same time the Arctic experienced extreme warming and accelerated sea ice loss, culminating in the record-low of September 2012.

Project Details
Funding Agency: 
Centre for Climate Dynamics - Research Council of Norway
Coordinating Institute: 
GFI, UIB
Project Status: 
Completed

Noel Keenlyside

Research
Area of Expertise: 
meteorology
Employment
Research Group: 
Climate Dynamics and Prediction
Job Position: 
Adjunct Position
Avdeling: 
GC Rieber Climate Institute
E-mail: 

Climate Dynamics and Prediction

Scientific Group Name: 
Climate Dynamics and Prediction
Our goal is to provide reliable climate prediction and advance the understanding of climate variability, predictability, and impacts.
  • Mechanisms of climate variability and predictability

Disentangle the anthropogenic climate change signal from the natural climate variability and elucidate the mechanisms of variability from sub-seasonal to multi-decadal time scales, for both developing understanding and aiding prediction.

Publish: 
Public

Yanchun He

Research
Area of Expertise: 
oceanography
Employment
Research Group: 
Climate Dynamics and Prediction
Job Position: 
Researcher
Avdeling: 
GC Rieber Climate Institute
E-mail: 
Phone: 
+47 454 87 601
Yanchun He
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