Climate Dynamics and Prediction

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BASIC: Climate response to a Bluer Arctic with increased newly-formed winter Sea ICe (BASIC)

To understand the consequences of more open Arctic sea water in summer and increasing ice-growth in winter for the Arctic and Eurasian climate

The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice has led to a ‘bluer’ Arctic. While at the same time, the extent and the volume of newly-formed sea ice in winter are increasing; the climate science community has largely overlooked this unforeseen change, but it has potentially profound and lasting impacts on the Arctic and the Eurasian climate.

Project Details
Coordinating Institute: 
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen
Project Status: 
Ongoing

BECOME-GYRE: BjerknEs COMpEnsation and the sub-polar GYRE

Elucidate the multi-decadal variability of the sub-polar gyre and its relationship to merridional heat transport variations in the North Atlantic. 

Bjerknes Compensation – the idea that anomalies of heat transport in the atmosphere and ocean must be approximately equal and opposite – has now been well established in the scientific literature [Shaffery and Sutton, 2006; Jungclaus and Koenigk, 2010; Outten and Esau, (submitted)]. However, studies of Bjerknes Compensation in climate models have all identified a multi-decadal variability in the heat transport anomalies, with a period of approximately 60-80 years. The mechanism underlying this multi-decadal variability has not been clearly identified.

Project Details
Coordinating Institute: 
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
Project Status: 
Completed

Eu-R-Cool: EuRasian Cooling in CMIP5 Models

Investigating the representation of Euriasan cooling in the CMIP5 models. 

There has been great interest and debate regarding the unusually low sea ice extent (SIE) over the Arctic in recent weeks, and while the summer minimum wasn’t record breaking, it is the sea-ice’s failure to recover since then that has sparked concern. The average SIE for 1981-2010 for this late in November is around 11.5M km2, but currently it is approximately 9.25M km2, a deficit of around 20%. While such a low SIE is unprecedented for this late in the year, it is the temperature response that is even more striking (Figure 1).

Project Details
Coordinating Institute: 
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
Project Status: 
Completed

MUDYFEET: MUlti-scalar DYnamics of Flood EvEnTs

Developing tools to investigate multi-scalar dynamics of extreme precipitation events over Norway.

Extreme events are often the result of interactions between large-scale atmospheric patterns and local scale features, e.g. orography. Traditional approaches to study extreme events typically focus on the importance of either the large scale (e.g. atmospheric rivers) or local scale dynamics. Multi-scalar dynamics investigates the full range of scales, taking a more holistic approach to studying extreme events.

Project Details
Coordinating Institute: 
NORCE
Project Status: 
Completed

ALERTNESS: Advanced models and weather prediction in the Arctic: Enhanced capacity from observations and polar process representations (

To develop world leading capacity for the delivery of reliable and accurate Arctic weather forecasts and warnings for the benefit of maritime operations, business and society.

High-impact weather conditions, rapid climate change and limited predictability make the Arctic a challenging operating environment leading to substantial business, societal and environmental risks. ALERTNESS
will meet this growing need for reliable and accurate weather predictions by addressing forecast challenges unique to the Arctic: availability and quality of observations, exploitation of satellite observations over snow

Project Details
Project Deputy Leader at NERSC: 
Stephen Outten
Coordinating Institute: 
Norwegian Meteorological Insitute
Project Status: 
Completed

VOLCANOES4CMIP: Applying volcanic impacts to future CMIP projections

To develop moethodologies for incorporating plausible future volcanic erruptions into CMIP climate projections. 

Despite the important role volcanic emissions play in shaping the climate, they have been omitted or at best crudely represented in state-of-the-art future climate projections to date. Recent work by our team at BCCR has assessed the effect of including volcanoes in
Project Details
Coordinating Institute: 
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
Project Status: 
Completed

AMTEC: Arctic-Midlatitude Teleconnections and Eurasian Cooling

Developing a synthesis paper on Eruasian cooling and Arctic to mid-latitude teleconnections.

The recent severe winters experienced over the Eurasian continent have attracted much attention, in particular because of an observed association with sea ice cover in the Barents- Kara Sea. This topic is particularly challenging to study because the relationship between sea ice and Eurasian winters manifests differently in reanalysis data compared to climate models (see selected Bjerknes publications below).

Project Details
Coordinating Institute: 
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
Project Status: 
Completed

CHEX: Climate Hazards and Extremes

To provide policy-relevant information through improved projections of climate hazards and extremes, by integrating long-term time series from proxy records with numerical model output and Earth observation data.

Climate hazards is a theme of growing importance, and it draws interest not only from the science community but also from policy-makers, industrial and financial actors, and local governments. We propose to bring together the BCCR’s expertise on climate-related geohazards, sea-level change, and extreme weather events, to conduct innovative research. We envision this synergetic project as an important conduit for the new BCCR Research Theme on climate hazards.

Project Details
Coordinating Institute: 
NORCE
Project Status: 
Completed

EMULATE: Enhancing Mechanistic Understanding of mid-latitude LArge-scale circulaTion Errors

Improving understanding of circulation biases in climate models and linking these to downstream extreme events. 

The projected response of the atmospheric circulation to radiative changes driven by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations is currently highly uncertain (Shepherd, 2014; Bony et al., 2015a; Ceppi and Shepherd, 2017). One of the primary reasons for this uncertainty is that the state-of-the- art models we employ to investigate these responses struggle to represent important features of the midlatitude circulation such as: storm tracks, jets and blocking.

Project Details
Coordinating Institute: 
NORCE
Project Status: 
Completed

NCKS: NCKS - DMI collaboration

This is a collaboration project to support ongoing and planned collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute

Joint publication(s) to be submitted in 2021, joint workshop on climate prediction to be held Dec 2021

Project Details
Coordinating Institute: 
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
Project Status: 
Completed
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