The recent apparent hiatus in warming of global mean surface temperatures continues to be the subject of much debate. Various explanations have been proposed, with at least one recent study suggesting it is an artefact of the interpolation methods [Cowtan and Way, QJRMS, 2013]. Changes in various natural and anthropogenic forcing factors in a way that differs from CMIP-5 prescribed forcings have been variously posited [Estrada et al, Nature Geo., 2013; Solomon et al, Science, 2011].

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The term Anthropocene denotes the on-going time period since the beginning of the industrialisation. Human actions have changed the Earth’s climate and environment during this period. 

How can the changes up to now be quantified and how to prepare for the future? 

Earth system models (ESMs) are key tools to answer this question. They are climate models which next to physics also take into account chemical, biological, and ecosystem processes. 

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Making regional sea level projections is a challenge, since in addition to the numerous local forcing elements, there are components forced from the open ocean onto the shelves and coasts that are largely unknown. Also, the two main components of sea level change, thermal expansion and global land-ice melt, have spatially varying imprints.

The regional effects of climate change can be heavily modulated by internal variability on time scales of seasons to decades. This climate variability may either mitigate or exacerbate the impacts of global warming and therefore has profound implications for mitigation and adaptation planning. The CMIP experiments provide global climate scenarios in response to external forcing, but they are not initialized in agreement with the observed state of the climate. Over the past decade, initialized climate predictions have been developed and are included in the 5th IPCC assessment report.

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 During the last decade global surface temperatures rose less rapidly than in the preceding decades. The northern hemisphere saw a spate of harsh winters, exemplified by the last one with extremely cold temperatures and high snowfalls across Europe and eastern North America, and one of the driest March in Western Norway since reliable observations started around 1900. At the same time the Arctic experienced extreme warming and accelerated sea ice loss, culminating in the record-low of September 2012.