Climate Dynamics and Prediction

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PARCIM: Proxy Assimilation for Reconstructing Climate and Improving Model

SKD-PARCIM is a strategic project at the Bjerknes Center for Climate Research (2022-2025) that combines novel model devellopements, improved paleoproxy observations, and understanding of multidecadal climate variability. Paleo-proxy observations will be used to produced an online climate reanalysis of the past milenium. They will also be used to mitigate long lasting model bias in climate models.

 The project will be organised in 3 work packages 

WP1  bring expertise on marine-based multi-proxy reconstructions (sediment core data and sclerochronological data). We will focus on improving the age models for the last 150 years in selected North Atlantic sediment cores, which will propagate down-core and improve the overall accuracy and precision of the sediment-based age models for the past millennium. 

Project Details
Funding Agency: 
Centre for Climate Dynamics - Research Council of Norway
Coordinating Institute: 
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
Project Status: 
Ongoing

URSA-MAJOR: URban Sustainability in Action: Multi-disciplinary Approach through Jointly Organized Research schools

URSA-MAJOR will redress of education and training for Smart-City development.

URSA MAJOR (Urban Sustainability in Action: Multi-disciplinary Approach through Jointly Organized Research schools) – integrates research advances and education into a holistic socioenvironmental program for Smart Cities. The project targets future urban stakeholders promoting the Green Deal transformations. It focusses on the regions of amplified climate change where urban areas have urgent needs to improve their sustainability and resilience, and where the cost of maladaptation is intolerably high.

Project Details
Project Deputy Leader at NERSC: 
Victoria Miles
Coordinating Institute: 
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
Project Status: 
Ongoing

Making climate models more accurate by improving their tuning

Earth’s climate is a very complex system, and it is not easy to understand with all its components – the main ones being ocean, land, atmosphere, and sea ice. Nevertheless, scientists have been trying for decades to predict future changes in climate with numerical models. These models keep getting better, but all components have systematic errors to some degree. Decreasing errors and thereby predicting the future climate more reliably will benefit society by allowing us to better adapt to climate change. 

 

Shengping He

Employment
Research Group: 
Climate Dynamics and Prediction
Job Position: 
Adjunct Position
E-mail: 

Predicting when and where unusually warm water is travelling from the Gulf Stream to the Arctic

About every 14 years, a significant temperature change is observed in the ocean between Greenland and Svalbard. Why, you wonder? Well, the Gulf Stream transports warm water northwards and on a regular basis, the water is even warmer and saltier than normally. These variations are regular, but can we predict these changes reliably? 

Can we predict what our climate might be like in the near future?

We can predict the weather about 10 days ahead of time, and climate projections look at how the climate will look like a hundred years from now. In between, we find a new field of science: climate prediction. A new publication describes how good our Norwegian Climate Prediction Model is at predicting the climate for our near future.

Why a 1 square km datapoint is better than a 900 square km one

Changes in climate have wide-reaching implications for life on Earth. By looking at the past climate we can understand ongoing processes better. But global datasets covering the past climate have too low resolutions to be useful for small-scale investigations like crop yield modelling – until now!

 

SERUS: Building Socio-Ecological Resilience through Urban Green, Blue and White Space

More than 80% of the Arctic population is living in 110 cities. Open space converts a settlement to a location with sense-of-place and values. Green (vegetated) and blue (water) spaces, being the areas of public attraction, recreation and eco-services, make cities livable. We consider green, blue and white space along with built-up areas as components of an interconnected socio-environmental (urban) ecosystem.

 

The project “Building Socio-Ecological Resilience through Urban Green, Blue and White Space (SERUS)” is an initiative to improve several aspects of the Arctic urban resilience. It seeks to advance a cross-disciplinary climate-ecology-policy (CEP) approach in creating the Arctic urban resilience.

Project Details
Project Deputy Leader at NERSC: 
Victoria Miles
Coordinating Institute: 
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
Project Status: 
Ongoing

21 years of algae blooms observed from space

Edson Silva just published his first article as part of his institutional PhD project - congratulations! Together with five other co-authors from NERSC and one from the University of Bergen (UiB), he studied the annual cycle of phytoplankton/algae blooms in the Nordic Seas by utilizing satellite data from 2000-2020.

What is phytoplankton?

PredictingNorwegianExtremeSeaLevel: Predicting the impact of decadal variability on extreme sea level along the Norwegian coast

To develop a sea-level indicator that can be used to predict near-term (decadal) changes in extreme sea-level variability along the Norwegian coast.

Extreme sea-level events represent potentially devastating hazards and are expected to occur more frequently in the future as a consequence of rising mean sea levels (Simpson et al., 2015). Additionally, and irrespective of changes in long-term mean sea level, decadal variability modulates and will persist to modulate extreme sea-level characteristics like return heights and periods, therefore intermittently exacerbating or dampening long term changes.

Project Details
Coordinating Institute: 
NORCE
Project Status: 
Completed
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