NACLIM aims at investigating and quantifying the predictability of the climate in the North Atlantic/European

sector related to North Atlantic/Arctic sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice variability and change on

seasonal to decadal time scales. SST and sea-ice forcing have a crucial impact on weather and climate in

Europe. Rather than running climate forecasts ourselves, we will analyze the multi-model decadal prediction

experiments currently performed as part of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and critically

assess the quality of predictions of the near-future state of key oceanic and atmospheric quantities relevant to

the SST and sea-ice distribution and the related climate. Long-term observations of relevant ocean parameters

will be carried out, necessary to assess the forecast skill of the model-based prediction results. We will identify

those observations that are key to the quality of the prediction and in turn optimize the present observing system.

We will quantify the impact of North Atlantic/European climate change on high trophic levels of the oceanic

ecosystem as well as on urban societies.