BlueArc: Impact of ‘Blue Arctic’ on Climate at High Latitudes
Arctic sea ice impact on climate
Objectives
The overall objective of this project is to quantify the impact of the ‘Blue Arctic’ on the climate and climate variability at high latitudes. Specific objectives are:
- Validating the new version of Bergen Climate Model (BCM2) ensemble simulations for key climate parameters focusing on how the sea ice affect atmospheric and oceanic circulation
- Performing ensemble sensitivity experiments with BCM2 and the atmospheric component of BCM2, specifying no summer sea ice for 3 months in order to assess the high latitude climate response to a summer ‘Blue Arctic Ocean’
- Comparing the simulation for the ‘Blue Arctic Ocean’ high latitude climate with present climate situation in order to assess the future changes in the atmospheric and oceanic circulation
Project Summary
The global warming is enhanced in the Arctic where surface air temperature has increased twice as much as the global average in recent decades, also called Arctic amplification. Arctic warming implies melting of sea ice, but its dynamic-thermodynamic response is neither straightforward
or necessarily linear, nor is the response of the atmosphere to sea ice
reductions. Satellite observations (1979 to present) show that the Arctic
sea ice cover has declined over the past three decades, with a record-low
summer ice extent in 2007. Furthermore, the projections from the IPCC
AR4 models show that the summer Arctic sea ice could disappear by the
end of 21st century. Recent studies suggest that the summer Arctic Ocean
can be ice-free faster than the projections of the coupled climate models.
This will have severe consequences for climate, environment and human
activities in high latitudes. Although previous studies show that the variability
of atmospheric circulation plays a dominant role in sea ice variability,
some observation-based studies also suggest that Arctic sea ice change
will have impact on the atmosphere circulation. Numerous simulations
(atmosphere-only models, not coupled climate models) have been performed
to investigate the potential impact of sea ice on the atmosphere where sea
ice is used as a fixed boundary. The objective of this project is to explore the
impact of a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean on the high-latitude climate. The
project will consist of comprehensive data analysis and use of the Bergen
Coupled Climate Model and the atmosphere-only model. For the coupled
model simulation, a special technique, the so-called partial coupling will be
used. The project will compare a Blue Arctic Ocean high latitude climate
scenario with the present climate situation in order to quantify and assess the
future changes. Improved knowledge about climate change at high latitudes
is essential for planning and policy making.