A Nordic Center of Excellence on ensemble-based methods for environmental monitoring and prediction has been awarded by NordForsk to a consortium lead by NERSC.

A major challenge today is to create precise, computer-based climate-change models, which are essential for making reliable predictions of future climate and environmental conditions.
Systems for forecasting e.g. the weather are based on two sources: knowledge about the physics of the flow (which is converted into a numerical model that computers can run) and observations from weather stations and satellites. Neither of these sources alone can provide sufficient information for making reliable forecasts. The objective of this new NCoE is to develop methods that efficiently combine observational data in order to apply this data in practice to predict future conditions and assess uncertainty in forecasts. Scientifically the NCoE domain is in the interface between mathematics, geostatistics, geophysics, physics and eScience.
The centre will focus on developing mathematical methods that can enhance the utilisation of observational data related to e.g. weather, climate and environment prediction and forecatsing.

The NCoE is lead by Dr. Geir Evensen, who is adjuct scientist II in applied mathematics at the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center in Bergen. The centre comprises five partners from Denmark, Finland, France and Norway.