Climate Dynamics and Prediction
Provide reliable climate prediction and advance the understanding of the climate variability, predictability and teleconnections
- Mechanisms of climate variability and predictability
Disentangle the climate change from its natural variability and identify mechanisms of variability from subseasonal to multidecadal time scale. We use climate model simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) and other CMIP6 models, tracer simulation and observations.
- Model errors and their influence on climate prediction/projection
Earth system models are hampered by biases that impact their result in unpredictable ways. By identifying model errors, their origin and their impacts on projections and predictions, we can improve future systems and the confidence in our results. We compare Earth system models and observations (in-situ, satellite, reanalysis, CO2 tracers).
- Seasonal-to-decadal climate prediction and reanalysis
Advance the state-of-the-art of reanalysis and seasonal-to-decadal climate prediction. We devellop and use the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) that combines the NorESM with the ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method. We aim at producing a long and reliable reanalysis of our Earth system from 1850 and contributing to CMIP6 Decadal Climate Prediction Project.
- Climate teleconnections between high and low latitudes
Explore the impacts of the Arctic sea ice decline on the climate variability and extreme events and the reversal influence of lower latitudes on the Arctic. At term, we will contribute to climate prediction by improving the understanding of teleconnections. Our analysis is based on NorESM, NorCPM, and other CMIP6 system as well as observational data