Climate Dynamics and Prediction

Group Leader: 
Yongqi Gao


About us

Provide reliable climate prediction and advance the understanding of the climate variability, predictability and teleconnections

Research Objectives

  • Mechanisms of climate variability and predictability

Disentangle the climate change from its natural variability and identify mechanisms of variability from subseasonal to multidecadal time scale. We use climate model simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) and other CMIP6 models, tracer simulation and observations.

  • Model errors and their influence on climate prediction/projection

Earth system models are hampered by biases that impact their result in unpredictable ways. By identifying model errors, their origin and their impacts on projections and predictions, we can improve future systems and the confidence in our results. We compare Earth system models and observations (in-situ, satellite, reanalysis, CO2 tracers).

  • Seasonal-to-decadal climate prediction and reanalysis

Advance the state-of-the-art of reanalysis and seasonal-to-decadal climate prediction. We devellop and use the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) that combines the NorESM with the ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method. We aim at producing a long and reliable reanalysis of our Earth system from 1850 and contributing to CMIP6 Decadal Climate Prediction Project.

  • Climate teleconnections between high and low latitudes

Explore the impacts of the Arctic sea ice decline on the climate variability and extreme events and the reversal influence of lower latitudes on the Arctic. At term, we will contribute to climate prediction by improving the understanding of teleconnections. Our analysis is based on NorESM, NorCPM, and other CMIP6 system as well as observational data 


Name Area of Expertise
Francois Counillon
Helene R. Langehaug oceanography
Kjetil Lygre geo-sciences
Lingling Suo meteorology
Madlen Kimmritz sea ice
Noel Keenlyside meteorology
Yanchun He oceanography
Yiguo Wang statistics
Yongqi Gao oceanography


Ongoing projects
Blue-Action: Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate
CONNECTED: Chinese-Norwegian partnership in climate teleconnection and prediction
INTAROS: Integrated Arctic Observation System
InterDec: InterDec - The potential of seasonal-to-decadal-scale inter-regional linkages to advance climate predictions
ARCPATH: Arctic Climate Predictions: Pathways to Resilient, Sustainable Societies
IMOS: Isfjorden Marine Observatory Svalbard
SNOWGLACE: The Changing Arctic Cryosphere: Snow and Sea Ice Impact On Prediction and Climate Over Europe and Asia
iNcREASE: NoRthern European and Arctic Sea lEvel
PARADIGM: Prediction And RegionAl DowscalInG Models
EVA: Earth system modelling of climate Variations in the Anthropocene
ORGANIC: Overturning ciRculation and its implications for Global cArboN cycle In Coupled models
GREENICE: NordForsk Impact of Future Cryospheric Changes on Northern Hemisphere Climate
EPOCASA: Enhancing seasonal-to-decadal Prediction Of Climate for the North Atlantic Sector and Arctic
EuraArc: Impact of Arctic sea ice decline on Eurasian Climate
NORTH: NORthern constraints on the Atlantic ThermoHaline circulation
VENTILATE: Ventilation and remineralisation in polar and sub-polar regions as indicators for climate change
Completed projects
NACLIM: North Atlantic Climate: Predictability of the climate in the North Atlantic/European sector
INDIA-CLIM: Decadal to multi-decadal variability in the Indian Monsoon Rainfall and teleconnection with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
GreenSeas: Development of global plankton data base and model system for eco-climate early warning
Predictability of Arctic/North Atlantic climate”, research project of the Centre of Climate Dynamics: PRACTICE
BlueArc: Impact of ‘Blue Arctic’ on Climate at High Latitudes
EastAMOC: Response of East Asian climate to reduced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation


Quality assessment of a 23-years ARC MFC reanalysis of the Arctic Ocean

31.01.2017 - 11:25 Lasse Pettersson
Nansen Center scientists, lead by scientist Dr. Jiping Xie, have published a comprehensive quality assessment of the TOPAZ4 ocean and sea ice model reanalysis...

Kronikk: Menneskeskabte klimaforandringer: Trump og klimaaftalen fra Paris

24.01.2017 - 11:21 Sebastian Mernild
Af Sebastian H. Mernild, professor i klimaforandringer (dr. scient) og administrerende direktør for Nansen Centeret, Norge, ogprofessor i klimafysik Jens...

New study: Weakening of North Atlantic current can be prevented by reducing carbon emissions

13.12.2016 - 16:17 Lasse Pettersson
Nansen Center CEO Sebastian Mernild participates in an international study incorporating a comprehensive assessment of Greenland Ice Sheet melting suggesting...

A new method for constraining the ocean in coupled system model for long reanalysis and climate predictions

08.12.2016 - 10:04 Lasse Pettersson
Nansen and Bjerknes scientists have for the first time demonstrated the capability - thanks to an advanced data assimilation method - to constrain ocean...

Arctic climatic temperature amplification in the addressed in two resent papers in Tellus

10.11.2016 - 14:10 Lasse Pettersson
Nansen Center scientists in Bergen and St. Petersburg have in two resent papers in the Tellus addressed the climatic temperature amplification in the Arctic,...

Award for most sited climate paper at SpringerLink in 2015

17.08.2016 - 15:28 Lasse Pettersson
The paper Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: A Review was the most downloaded paper published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences at SpingerLink in 2015....

Doctoral dissertation; Climate variability research cooperation between Norway, India and China

03.06.2016 - 09:08 Lasse Pettersson
Lea Svendsen defended her doctoral thesis Impact of Atlantic multi-decadal variability on the Indo-Pacific and Northern Hemisphere climate at the Nansen Center...

Study of the trend and variability in the surface air temperature in the Arctic

20.05.2016 - 08:00 Lasse Pettersson
Nansen Fellow Prof Ola M. Johannessen and colleagues at the Nansen International Center in St. Petersburg and Uni Research have published the paper Surface air...

Sail-off Meeting of Nordic Center of Excellence at the Nansen Center

12.04.2016 - 09:35 Lasse Pettersson
The sail-off meeting of Nordic Center of Excellence Arctic Climate Predictions: Pathways to Resilient, Sustainable Societies (ARCPATH) took place at Nansen...